Applying NMHSPF age-banded rates to the 9 SNHN LGAs gives a modelled prevalence of 18.9% (176,415 people) and high-distress K10 prevalence of 13.5%. Modelled BetterAccess uptake of 81/1,000 leaves an estimated 100,782-person service-need gap across the catchment. The NSPHN 2024–2027 Needs Assessment cites 18.3% prevalence and 13.7% distress — within 0.7pp of our independent model.
Prevalence and distress vary little across SNHN's 9 LGAs (within 1.5pp), but absolute service-need gaps are concentrated in the three largest LGAs — the same three the Wellbeing Hubs target.
| LGA | Population | Modelled MH prev. | K10 high distress (18+) | BetterAccess / 1k | Service-need gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Beaches | 270,772 | 18.6% | 13.3% | 79 | |
| Hornsby | 154,834 | 18.5% | 13.2% | 78 | |
| Ryde | 139,047 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 88 | |
| Ku-ring-gai | 128,362 | 18.2% | 13.0% | 76 | |
| Willoughby | 79,634 | 19.3% | 13.7% | 84 | |
| North Sydney | 72,909 | 20.1% | 14.0% | 90 | |
| Lane Cove | 42,566 | 19.7% | 13.9% | 86 | |
| Mosman | 29,253 | 18.3% | 13.1% | 78 | |
| Hunters Hill | 14,062 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 73 |
Northern Beaches (29,081), Hornsby (16,551) and Ryde (15,503) together account for 61% of the modelled catchment-wide service gap — the same three LGAs hosting the Northern Sydney Wellbeing Hubs in July 2026.
The catchment headline (18.3% prevalence) hides much higher rates inside specific cohorts. These five — verbatim from the NSPHN 2024–2027 Needs Assessment — should drive commissioning priority.
Lower than NSW but masked by female sub-cohort — NA flags youth + female + Aboriginal as the priority slice.
NA flags barriers to NDIS access for severe-MH cohort. Service commissioning must close the bridge between BetterAccess and NDIS streams.
A simple composite — 40% unemployment + 35% 65+ share + 25% LBOTE (CALD proxy) — surfaces the SA2s with the highest concurrent indicators of mental-health service need.
| # | SA2 | Population | 65+ % | LBOTE % | Unemployment % | Need index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Eastwood · Ryde | 18,974 | 17.4% | 68.8% | 5.7% | 8.1 |
| 02 | Chatswood - East · Willoughby | 19,601 | 15.3% | 64.6% | 5.7% | 7.66 |
| 03 | Macquarie Park - Marsfield · Ryde | 23,818 | 14.1% | 59.7% | 6.6% | 7.61 |
| 04 | Castle Hill - East · Hornsby | 5,670 | 36.1% | 41.9% | 4.1% | 7.42 |
| 05 | Wahroonga (West) - Waitara · Hornsby | 11,877 | 17.7% | 57.7% | 5.0% | 7.16 |
| 06 | Wahroonga (West) - Waitara · Ku-ring-gai | 11,877 | 17.7% | 57.7% | 5.0% | 7.16 |
| 07 | Hornsby - East · Hornsby | 11,943 | 12.6% | 62.4% | 5.2% | 7.08 |
| 08 | Epping (East) - North Epping · Hornsby | 14,404 | 14.0% | 57.5% | 4.9% | 6.78 |
| 09 | West Ryde - Meadowbank · Ryde | 20,102 | 13.2% | 55.9% | 5.3% | 6.77 |
| 10 | Cherrybrook · Hornsby | 19,082 | 18.8% | 50.0% | 4.6% | 6.61 |
| 11 | Ryde - South · Ryde | 11,972 | 10.7% | 58.2% | 4.8% | 6.49 |
| 12 | Ryde - North · Ryde | 20,291 | 16.1% | 48.3% | 5.1% | 6.47 |
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