Tool № 02 · Disadvantage

Decile 10 everywhere — and 87,490 on income support.

SEIFA puts all 9 SNHN LGAs in the most-advantaged national decile. Yet the catchment carries 87,490 income-support recipients (97.8 per 1,000 residents) and NDIS participation has grown +41.7% in the four years to 2025-12. Inside decile 10, IRSD raw scores still span 55 points — there are real differences.

IRSD score range
1055–1110
avg 1091 · all 9 LGAs at decile 10
Income support recipients
87,490
97.8 per 1,000 · DSS 2025-12
Age pension recipients
56,100
10,790 on DSP · 2,620 carer
NDIS participants
14,880
+41.7% over 4 years
§ HUB · Neighbourhood Health Hub siting

Where should the hubs go?

SA2-level composite need score across the three hub LGAs (Hornsby, Ryde, Northern Beaches). 30% 65+ share + 25% LBOTE + 25% unemployment + 20% inverse household income, z-scored across the full 69-SA2 catchment so scores are comparable between LGAs.

ABS Census 2021 · 42 SA2s in hub LGAs
Hornsby
  1. Castle Hill - East+1.69
    65+ 36% · LBOTE 42% · unemp 4.1% · HH inc $2014/wk
  2. Wahroonga (West) - Waitara+0.98
    65+ 18% · LBOTE 58% · unemp 5.0% · HH inc $2155/wk
  3. Hornsby - East+0.94
    65+ 13% · LBOTE 62% · unemp 5.2% · HH inc $1817/wk
  4. Epping (East) - North Epping+0.60
    65+ 14% · LBOTE 58% · unemp 4.9% · HH inc $2385/wk
  5. Cherrybrook+0.45
    65+ 19% · LBOTE 50% · unemp 4.6% · HH inc $2924/wk
Ryde
  1. Eastwood+1.43
    65+ 17% · LBOTE 69% · unemp 5.7% · HH inc $1953/wk
  2. Macquarie Park - Marsfield+1.37
    65+ 14% · LBOTE 60% · unemp 6.6% · HH inc $1924/wk
  3. Ryde - North+0.88
    65+ 16% · LBOTE 48% · unemp 5.1% · HH inc $1889/wk
  4. West Ryde - Meadowbank+0.82
    65+ 13% · LBOTE 56% · unemp 5.3% · HH inc $2019/wk
  5. Ryde - South+0.48
    65+ 11% · LBOTE 58% · unemp 4.8% · HH inc $2158/wk
Northern Beaches
  1. Narrabeen - Wheeler Heights+0.24
    65+ 27% · LBOTE 11% · unemp 2.8% · HH inc $1998/wk
  2. Mona Vale - Warriewood (North)+0.15
    65+ 25% · LBOTE 11% · unemp 3.3% · HH inc $2277/wk
  3. Belrose+0.07
    65+ 26% · LBOTE 17% · unemp 3.0% · HH inc $2601/wk
  4. Dee Why - North+0.04
    65+ 12% · LBOTE 39% · unemp 3.9% · HH inc $2069/wk
  5. Avalon - Palm Beach+0.03
    65+ 25% · LBOTE 6% · unemp 3.6% · HH inc $2547/wk
All 10 top-ranked SA2s across the three hub LGAs
SA2 Population 65+ % LBOTE % Unemp % HH income / wk Composite
Castle Hill - East · Hornsby 5,670 36.1% 41.9% 4.1% $2,014 +1.69
Eastwood · Ryde 18,974 17.4% 68.8% 5.7% $1,953 +1.43
Macquarie Park - Marsfield · Ryde 23,818 14.1% 59.7% 6.6% $1,924 +1.37
Wahroonga (West) - Waitara · Hornsby 11,877 17.7% 57.7% 5.0% $2,155 +0.98
Hornsby - East · Hornsby 11,943 12.6% 62.4% 5.2% $1,817 +0.94
Ryde - North · Ryde 20,291 16.1% 48.3% 5.1% $1,889 +0.88
West Ryde - Meadowbank · Ryde 20,102 13.2% 55.9% 5.3% $2,019 +0.82
Epping (East) - North Epping · Hornsby 14,404 14.0% 57.5% 4.9% $2,385 +0.60
Ryde - South · Ryde 11,972 10.7% 58.2% 4.8% $2,158 +0.48
Cherrybrook · Hornsby 19,082 18.8% 50.0% 4.6% $2,924 +0.45

Use case · co-design artefact

This is the kind of evidence the Northern Sydney Wellbeing Collaborative can put in a board paper for the July 2026 hub launch. Trade off the components, change the weights, drop the threshold — every SA2 keeps a defensible audit trail back to ABS Census 2021.

§ 01 · SEIFA — four lenses

One catchment, four ways of measuring relative position.

SEIFA 2021 produces four indexes per LGA. IRSD (Disadvantage), IRSAD (Advantage & Disadvantage), IER (Economic Resources), IEO (Education & Occupation). All 9 SNHN LGAs sit at decile 10 across every index — the variance is in the raw scores.

ABS SEIFA · 2021
§ 02 · Income support load

Where the money actually goes.

DSS payments per LGA, latest quarter. Five core income-support streams (age pension, DSP, carer payment, jobseeker, parenting) stacked. Family Tax Benefit and rent assistance excluded — those overlap with working incomes.

DSS · 2025-12
Age pension
DSP
Carer payment
Jobseeker
Parenting / youth allowance
§ 03 · NDIS trajectory

NDIS participation, quarter by quarter.

One line per LGA, bold for the whole catchment. SNHN's NDIS roll has grown +41.7% in the 4 years to 2025-12 — a structural shift in disability service load.

NDIS Quarterly · 2021-12–2025-12
§ 03b · Income support rate

Recipients per 1,000 residents.

Absolute counts favour the biggest LGAs. The per-1,000 rate normalises against population — surfaces which LGAs carry the highest relative load. Catchment rate: 97.8 per 1,000.

Rate · DSS 2025-12
§ 03c · Income-support mix

What share of recipients are on which payment.

For each LGA, the composition of its income-support cohort — age pension dominates everywhere, but the DSP + carer + jobseeker tail varies. This is the picture commissioning briefs need when prioritising programs.

Composition · DSS 2025-12
Age pension
DSP
Carer payment
Jobseeker
Parenting / youth
§ 03d · NDIS growth rate

Where NDIS roll is growing fastest.

4-year growth in NDIS participants per LGA (Dec 2021 → Dec 2025). Catchment averaged +41.7%, but the spread between fastest and slowest LGAs is wide.

% growth · 4 years
§ 04 · LGA by LGA

Nine LGAs, nine disadvantage profiles.

Each card: IRSD score, income-support load, NDIS participants, and an NDIS sparkline since 2021.

9 LGAs

§ 05 · Methodology

Source data and processing:

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